Tuesday, 25 August 2015

Prabhat Dairy Ltd. - IPO Note

Incorporated in 1998 and promoted by Nirmal family, Prabhat Dairy Ltd. is an integrated milk and dairy product company in India catering to both institutional as well as retail customers. It produces variety of fresh, dry, frozen, cultured and fermented dairy products like flavoured milk, sweetened condensed milk, ghee, yoghurt, chaas, lassi, etc. The company has recently setup new facility for commercial production of cheese, paneer and shrikhand and currently has aggregate milk processing capacity of 1.5 million litres per day.

Key Investment Arguments
  • Focus on increasing retail consumer product share to improve profitability
  • New products and increasing capacities to drive growth
  • Niche institutional clientele

Key Risks
  • Risk of procuring milk of required quality at competitive price
  • High regulatory risk
  • Concentration risk

Valuation
At the offer price bands, the issue is available at P/E of 47.5x – 49.8x its FY15 EPS of ~`2.95, valuing the stock at 1.3x Market Cap to Sales. We believe there are great opportunities for dairy products in the FMCG industry with increasing premium products in the market. The company’s focus on retail consumer products, introduction of new high margin product like cheese and expanding capacities as well as capabilities, coupled with strong relationship with existing institutional clients; we believe the company fully equipped to benefit the growth opportunities in future. Hence, I recommend SUBSCRIBE to this issue.

Monday, 24 August 2015

What if you decide how much of your PF money goes to equity?

     EPFO (Employee’s Provident Fund Organisation) has started investing in Equities for the first time from 6th August, 2015. Labour Ministry has decided that EPFO will invest 5 percent of its incremental corpus in Equities via ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) route, which sums to approximately Rs.5,000 to Rs.6,000 crores in the current financial year. This move is taken with the aim of earning higher returns on the accumulated provident fund corpus and pass on the incremental returns to the account holders to some extent by providing a higher rate of interest on the EPF account. Till now, EPFO used to invest only in G-Secs, Treasury Bills / Notes and Corporate Bonds; so overall 100% across debt instruments. 

     EPF can be classified as defined contribution plan, where the contribution to the fund is defined as fixed percentage of your salary (Basic + Dearness Allowance). Globally, in countries like US, such defined contribution plans have different investment options across different asset classes, where the employee can choose in which asset class he wishes to invest the contribution towards provident fund; just like we have an option to choose between G-Sec, other fixed income instrument and equities under NPS (National Pension Scheme).  In such plans investment risk has to be borne by the employee, since he decides in which asset classes and in what proportions would the contributed funds will be invested. 

     Let us consider a hypothetical example, where 24 years old Mr.Yash takes up a new job after his post graduation. As per his salary structure, his contribution to EPF is Rs.1,000 per month and equal contribution by the employer, summing to Rs.2,000 per month. Assuming Mr.Yash works for next 35 years (i.e till age 59 years), with same contribution of Rs.2,000 towards EPF irrespective of his salary hike and job switch; he would be able to accumulate approximately Rs.19 lakhs. Given an option under EPF of investing in Nifty / Sensex Index Fund where the average returns would have been approximately 12% p.a., his EPF corpus would have grown to approximately Rs.37.6 lakhs. You can see the difference between the two corpuses; where 4% p.a. additional return over 25 years would have earned double the corpus though for which he would have taken high amount of risk. 

     Historically equity as an asset class has always been an outperformer beating the inflation rate significantly over long term (i.e 10 years or above) compared to other asset classes like gold, real estate or debt (fixed deposits, bonds, etc). Average 10 year SIP return in Nifty has been approximately ~16% - 17%. EPF is a long-term investment, with poor liquidity. So, given an option an employee can opt to invest his contributions to equity, keeping in mind long-term investment horizon and the risks associated with it in order to earn higher returns.

     So, if EPFO would invest the contributions of the employee in Equity on his behalf, he would be able to accumulate a higher retirement corpus from EPF contributions and thus live a better retirement life. Though this is carries high risk but in turn is rewarded with higher returns as well. I wish Labour Ministry to soon take such initiatives for the social security of the employee and thus benefit them for a happy retired life! 

Published in: Moneycontrol.com

Monday, 20 July 2015

Syngene International Ltd. - IPO Note

Syngene International Ltd. is one the leading Contract Research Organisations (CROs) in India. Incorporated in 1993, Syngene is a subsidiary of Biocon Ltd., a global biopharmaceutical company. The company offers suite of integrated, end to end discovery and development services for novel molecular entities across sectors. The company has US FDA approved state-of-the-art manufacturing and research facility at Bengaluru; with 2,122 scientists. 

Key Investment Arguments
  • Increasing clientele
  • Forward integration to commercial-scale manufacturing
  • Planned capex, building blocks for the future
  • Strong balance sheet and consistent earnings track record

Key Risks
  • Client concentration risk
  • High regulatory risk
  • Foreign currency volatility risk

Valuation
At the offer price bands, the issue is available at P/E of 27.3x – 28.4x its FY15 EPS of ~`8.8. We believe there are great opportunities for CROs from the outsourcing markets and thus increasing their share towards global R&D expenditures. The company’s increasing clientele, expanding capacities as well as capabilities, along with plans for forward integration into commercial manufacturing will enable the company to drive growth by benefiting from the opportunities in future. Hence, I recommend SUBSCRIBE to this issue.